Want To Pick An Oscar Winner? Here's How.

Information every movie fan needs to know before dropping his or her ten bucks into the Oscar pool at your annual party: People like to work.  They’ll continue to work if their work receives accolades.  Big  studios (especially the craft unions --- make-up, sound-editing, costumes, etc.) have a tendency to vote as a bloc for their own product, in order to have a job the next day.

   2) No one who hasn’t certified that he or she has seen the short films, documentaries, foreign films, is allowed to nominate in these esoteric categories. (NB: Here’s how it works.  Each category of talent submits nominees in its field; the top vote-getters are then submitted to the entire Academy for a vote.)  This makes life  difficult for Oscar handicappers.  You’re going to lose these categories unless there is one of the five films about which you’re heard something --- anything!  Remembering which gives you a shot.
 
 3) Hollywood has a heart, desperate to display itself to the world. Which is to say, there are certain unknowns that might favor one actor over another.  A great comeback, a miserable divorce, overcoming drug addiction, age and the likelihood that this will be his/her last picture.  Learn to think as an Academy member would.

   4) Giving Academy members their due, let’s assume that each really cares about good films.  That’s happy news, because they hardly ever see one in a theater, being  bombarded, usually starting before the end of the year, with DVDs of films producers and studios feel have a chance of winning a nomination.  This means Academy members can see a film once, or fourteen times, go over and over a sequence to study it.  And they can discuss what they’ve seen with others.  Therefore, they know.

      If you’re really hot to collect that loot in the hat, start studying the “less importantâ€� categories, because these are the ones that will foul things up for you.

      The easiest pick: this year’s Best Foreign Film.  There is really only one choice: “Waltz with Bashir.â€�  This has won every award in every film festival it’s entered, and is moving and from Israel.  Apart from that, if one looks at the remainder of the category, there is no other film about which any of us know a thing.

      “Achievement in Makeupâ€� is a little tougher.  You have two big studio jobs from which to pick, “Benjamin Buttonâ€� and “The Dark Knight.â€�  My money would be on “Benjamin Buttonâ€� because “Dark Knightâ€� will later score for Best Supporting Actor.

That’s Hollywood’s heart for you, right out in the open.

     “Best Documentary Short Subjectâ€� – what to do?  I’d pick (and probably lose) “The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306.â€�  Why?  Because its production team --- A Rock Paper Scissors Production --- has won this category before and is therefore known.

     “Best Live Action Short Filmâ€� --- again we’re in the dark.  “Man on Wireâ€� has had a lot of play but “Encounters at the End of the Worldâ€� comes from Werner Herzog.  Your choice.

     Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (original score).  O.K.  Here’s
where the rubber meets the road.  “WALL-Eâ€� from Disney was adored by one and all.  

But it’s up against “Slumdog Millionaiareâ€� which, in this bizarre year, has a real shot.  

My choice: “WALL-E.�

     Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (original song).  A category that should have been dropped in the Sixties.  One that makes everyone watching groan, anticipating the miserably boring direction (and dance, dance, dance) of the presentation and its endlessness.  Besides, who walked out a theater humming these songs?  The choices are stark: “WALL-Eâ€� and “Slumdog.â€�  If you pick “Slumdog,â€� it has two entries in this category, which is why my choice again would be WALL-E.

    Best Live Action Short Film.  I feel worthless reading these titles, which come from Ireland, Hungary, Germany, etc.  Also, have not been certified in order to nominate.  So I recommend either “New Boyâ€� from Ireland or “the Pig.â€�  You guess is as good as mine.

    Achievement in Sound Editing.  Remember Rule Number 1.  You’ve got Disney and Warner Brothers up, not to mention Paramount (a joint production) and Universal.  Who is hungriest?  If there is going to be a sweep for “Slumdog,â€� add this category to its laurels.  Otherwise, bet on “Dark Knight,â€� with an outside chance for “Iron Man.â€�

    Achievement in Sound Mixing.  Again, recalling Rule Number 1, you’ve got four big studios here and one maybe.  Pick a biggie.

    Achievement in Visual Effects.  “Benjamin Button.â€�

    Achievement in Film Editing.  A real toss up.  Pick one and know that you’re probably wrong.

    Best Animated Short Film.  Again, one needs certification.  I haven’t got it.  At a complete loss, and I’d probably lose no matter which film I selected.

    Space limitations prevent us from further rambling, but keep in mind that “Slumdog Millionaireâ€� is up for a number of awards in the crafts categories, which might make it seem a sweep by the evening’s end.  And it will be in these categories too that favorites like “Benjamin Button,â€� “Milk,â€� and “Frost/Nixonâ€� may score.

    On to the Biggies, and these ARE Biggies, no matter what anyone thinks.  Without these two categories, no one works. Original Screenplay: one giant, “Milk.â€�  Adapted Screenplay: for the complexity of its vision, “Slumdog.â€�

    Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz --- without her, there’s no film here worth talking about.

    Supporting Actor: a tight line-up --- the award will probably go to Heath Ledger, but Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr. are also deserving.

    Best Actress: Kate Winslet but Anne Hathaway has grown up and is giving fair warning.

    Best Actor: tough, and too close to call.  Sentiment may favor Mickey Rourke but Sean Penn’s performance was kaleidoscopic and subtle at the same time.  My pick: Penn.

    Best Director: will probably go to “Slumdog’sâ€� Danny Boyle.  Good reasons: breadth of canvas, ingenuity, size.

    Best Picture: again, “Slumdog Millionaire.â€� If one stops to consider, this is the ultimate American story --- children overcoming all odds to find (if not happiness then at least) a way to live happily.  (That this may well be untrue does not matter one bit.)

    Caveat: you’re reading the opinions of one who hasn’t won an Oscar pool in more than twenty years.  Good luck!

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